I am saying, "Not so fast!"
I've drawn some graphs to help out here.
- At the bottom is the prediction the groundhog makes if he sees his shadow: not spring until spring, then spring.
- Next is the groundhog-does-not-see-his-shadow prediction: not spring until "early" then spring.
- Next is what people think should happen in the "no shadow" case: no spring until "early" then spring until summer comes along.
- At the top is what happened this year: not spring until "early" then spring for a while before a relapse around the beginning of spring.
As you can see by comparing the green and the blue lines - what we got this year was entirely in keeping with the giant rodent's prediction.
The "seer of seers" also correctly predicted that I would at some point in early spring take something much too seriously. Probably.