Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Day 9.072: Don't blame the groundhog!

I saw a few posts on Facebook yesterday pointing out that the groundhog did not see his shadow on February 2nd and therefore called for an early spring. In the context of a significant snow storm on the first day of spring, some are calling him out on a terrible prediction.

I am saying, "Not so fast!"

I've drawn some graphs to help out here.
  • At the bottom is the prediction the groundhog makes if he sees his shadow: not spring until spring, then spring.
  • Next is the groundhog-does-not-see-his-shadow prediction: not spring until "early" then spring.
  • Next is what people think should happen in the "no shadow" case: no spring until "early" then spring until summer comes along.
  • At the top is what happened this year: not spring until "early" then spring for a while before a relapse around the beginning of spring.

As you can see by comparing the green and the blue lines - what we got this year was entirely in keeping with the giant rodent's prediction.

The "seer of seers" also correctly predicted that I would at some point in early spring take something much too seriously. Probably.

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